Overview: In October, the price of cold-rolled steel coils showed a fluctuating downward trend, with prices falling by 215 yuan/ton month-on-month. From an inventory point of view, the level of depot depots from factories and warehouses was average, and social depots increased slightly again, and the pressure to depot depots was prominent; from a supply perspective, most steel mills ended their annual maintenance in October and some areas were relaxed due to “power curtailment”, and supply rebounded slightly. ; From the current market research situation, in November cold-rolled steel coil demand is difficult to pick up, the price center of gravity may fall again.
Overall review of the international market for cold rolled coils
China’s cold-rolled steel coil export prices fell slightly in October, with a month-on-month drop of US$23/ton. From market feedback, in late October, affected by the decline in domestic prices, export quotations fell, and export prices fell to around 991 yuan/ton, but export prices were still at a high level. From the data point of view, with the rise of resources in India and the Commonwealth of Independent States, China’s refrigeration resources have recently regained some advantages. In addition, the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia has improved somewhat recently. Terminal production and work resumed relatively smoothly. Some merchants resumed the procurement of cold coils. It is expected that China’s cold coil exports will improve to a certain extent in the short term. It is expected that the export price in October will remain within USD 1,000/ton. , Showing an oscillating trend.
Raw material exports of cold-rolled steel coils
According to customs statistics, in September, the export volume of cold-rolled thin steel sheets and cold-rolled thin-width steel coils was 616,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 22,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 376,500 tons; from the expected data, exports in October The volume continued to decline month-on-month, but the rate of decline may be significantly narrowed, reflecting the rebound in overseas demand. It is expected that exports will stop falling and stabilize in November.
The difference between cold and hot spreads and cold plating spreads fluctuates
In October, the price difference between hot and cold expanded slightly. As of the end of October, the price difference between hot and cold was 807 yuan/ton, an increase of 153 yuan/ton month-on-month; the spread of cold plating was 269 yuan/ton, and the month-on-month decrease 34 yuan/ton. Judging from the recent market situation, hot-rolled prices have fallen sharply, while cold-rolled prices have fallen slowly. It is expected that the cold-hot spread and the cold-plated spread will continue to fluctuate in the range in November.
In terms of cost: According to market research, the profit of long-flow cold-rolling production enterprises is maintained at 450-600 yuan/ton. In the case of reasonable profits, long-flow cold-rolling production enterprises are more enthusiasm for production; independent steel rolling enterprises currently maintain profits At 150 yuan/ton, the price of hot-rolled steel coil has dropped significantly recently, while the price of cold-rolled steel has been relatively strong, and the price difference between cold and hot steel has remained at 700-800 yuan/ton. Therefore, independent steel rolling enterprises in November are still enthusiastic about production while costs are falling. .
In November, the overall supply and demand of cold-rolled rolling stocks showed a weak balance. Factory warehouses and social warehouses may continue to increase. The overall inventory of cold-rolled steel coils may show an increase in warehouses. In the case of consumption falling short of expectations, the overall market mentality is more pessimistic. In summary, the center of gravity of cold rolled prices in November may fall again.