1. Futures and spot market prices of steel products
On July 20, the price of the domestic steel market rose mainly, and the black futures rose on the 20th, which boosted market confidence to a certain extent, and the spot steel market followed suit. Many domestic steel mills raised the price of construction steel products by 10-40 yuan/ton.
Hot-rolled coils: On July 20, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coils in major cities in China was 3,921 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. This week, the output of hot-rolled coils increased slightly, and the inventory of steel mills and the social inventory were both declining. It can be seen that the demand side has improved slightly. The strong operation of raw materials is also one of the factors leading to price increases. The demand side in the later period is still relatively optimistic. On the whole, it is expected that the price of hot-rolled coils in China may fluctuate strongly in the short term.
Cold-rolled coils: On July 20, the average price of 1.0mm cold coils in major cities in China was 4,538 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. On the 20th, the black futures market fluctuated strongly, and market confidence was boosted to a certain extent. Most merchants raised their quotations slightly, but the actual transaction price had a certain room for discount. In terms of social inventory, the social inventory of cold-rolled coils was 1.2213 million tons, an increase of 20,800 tons week-on-week. On the whole, it is expected that the price of cold rolling may continue to be adjusted within a narrow range.
3. Steel market price forecast
On the supply side: This week, the output of the five major types of steel products was 9.3916 million tons, an increase of 65,800 tons week-on-week. Among them, the output of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil and cold-rolled coil increased slightly, while the output of medium and heavy plate decreased slightly.
In terms of inventory: This week, the total inventory of steel products was 16.1942 million tons, an increase of 4,400 tons week-on-week. Among them, the inventory of steel mills was 4.5127 million tons, a decrease of 97,100 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 11.6815 million tons, an increase of 101,500 tons from the previous week.
The demand for steel products in the off-season is unstable, the transaction of low-priced resources is acceptable, and the transaction of high-priced resources is difficult. At the same time, under the low profit status of steel mills, the output fluctuations are not large, and the inventory of raw materials and fuels remains low. Considering the tight supply of coking coal in some regions, the recent coking coal and coke markets have been operating relatively strongly, and the overall cost of steel has risen.
In short, under the high temperature and rainy off-season, the steel market maintains a weak balance between supply and demand, and there is little pressure on inventory accumulation. Driven by policies and costs, confidence in the steel market has recovered, and short-term steel prices may fluctuate slightly.