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The impact of the rise of steel production capacity in Southeast Asia on the flow of global seaborne iron ore

Southeast Asia is located in southeastern Asia, including the Indochina Peninsula and the Malay Archipelago. There are 11 countries in total: Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei, the Philippines, and Timor-Leste. Among them, steel production capacity is mainly distributed in Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Singapore, also known as the six ASEAN countries. Countries in Southeast Asia started relatively late in their economies, and their economic foundations are generally weak, especially the development of the steel industry is lagging behind. In recent years, with the continuous deepening of economic globalization and the continuous adjustment of the division of labor in the global industrial chain, factors such as cheap human resources in Southeast Asia have attracted a large number of investments, accelerating the industrialization process in the region and driving the continuous growth of the steel industry.

In addition, iron ore in Southeast Asia is mainly distributed in Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia, which also facilitates local steel production.

  • Current steel production capacity distribution

In 2022, the crude steel production capacity of the six ASEAN countries (Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore) will be 77 million tons, of which the electric furnace steel production capacity will be 41 million tons, and the converter steel production capacity will be 36 million tons, accounting for 53% and 36 million tons respectively. 47%. Specifically, Vietnam’s crude steel production capacity is the largest, reaching 27 million tons, accounting for 35% of the six ASEAN countries, followed by Malaysia and Indonesia, with production capacity of 17.3 million and 17 million tons, accounting for 22.5% and 22%.

In 2022, the six ASEAN countries (Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore) will produce 52.99 million tons of crude steel, accounting for 2.8% of the global crude steel production of 1.9 billion tons. Vietnam ranked first with 20 million tons, accounting for 38%, down 3.02 million tons from 2021.

  • Changes in steel production capacity in the future

In recent years, huge production capacity investment projects are pouring into the six ASEAN countries, mainly concentrated in Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. According to Mysteel statistics, in the next 3-5 years, 15 new steel capacity projects in Southeast Asia are expected to be put into operation, involving a total capacity of 82.2 million tons, of which Malaysia will contribute the largest increase.

Based on this calculation, the crude steel production capacity of the six ASEAN countries is expected to reach 90 million tons in 2023, an increase of 56 million tons over 2011, an increase of 164.7%. Among them, the production capacity of electric furnace steel is 48 million tons, and that of converter steel is 42 million tons, accounting for 53% and 47%, respectively. Specifically, Vietnam’s crude steel production capacity is the largest, reaching 28.8 million tons, accounting for 32% of the six ASEAN countries, followed by Malaysia and Indonesia, with production capacity of 19.8 million and 18.9 million tons, accounting for 22% and 21%.

It is estimated that the crude steel production capacity of the six ASEAN countries will reach 140 million tons in 2026, of which the electric furnace steel production capacity will be 51 million tons, accounting for a further drop to 36%, while the converter steel production capacity will be 89 million tons, accounting for 64%.

  • The changing trend of iron ore trade flow in the future

At present, the iron and steel industry of the six ASEAN countries is still highly dependent on the international raw material market. The main sources of imported iron ore include Brazil and Australia, and most of them flow to Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia. Transshipment hub.

In the next three years, the converter steel production capacity of the six ASEAN countries will increase by 47 million tons, accounting for a significant increase in the proportion of crude steel production capacity, an increase of about 17 percentage points, which also means that the corresponding demand for iron ore will be greatly increased. The flow of iron ore trade will shift to the six ASEAN countries.

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Several steel mills have raised prices, predicting that steel prices will still rise

1. Futures and spot market prices of steel products

On July 20, the price of the domestic steel market rose mainly, and the black futures rose on the 20th, which boosted market confidence to a certain extent, and the spot steel market followed suit. Many domestic steel mills raised the price of construction steel products by 10-40 yuan/ton.

Hot-rolled coils: On July 20, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coils in major cities in China was 3,921 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. This week, the output of hot-rolled coils increased slightly, and the inventory of steel mills and the social inventory were both declining. It can be seen that the demand side has improved slightly. The strong operation of raw materials is also one of the factors leading to price increases. The demand side in the later period is still relatively optimistic. On the whole, it is expected that the price of hot-rolled coils in China may fluctuate strongly in the short term.

Cold-rolled coils: On July 20, the average price of 1.0mm cold coils in major cities in China was 4,538 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. On the 20th, the black futures market fluctuated strongly, and market confidence was boosted to a certain extent. Most merchants raised their quotations slightly, but the actual transaction price had a certain room for discount. In terms of social inventory, the social inventory of cold-rolled coils was 1.2213 million tons, an increase of 20,800 tons week-on-week. On the whole, it is expected that the price of cold rolling may continue to be adjusted within a narrow range.

3. Steel market price forecast

On the supply side: This week, the output of the five major types of steel products was 9.3916 million tons, an increase of 65,800 tons week-on-week. Among them, the output of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil and cold-rolled coil increased slightly, while the output of medium and heavy plate decreased slightly.

In terms of inventory: This week, the total inventory of steel products was 16.1942 million tons, an increase of 4,400 tons week-on-week. Among them, the inventory of steel mills was 4.5127 million tons, a decrease of 97,100 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 11.6815 million tons, an increase of 101,500 tons from the previous week.

The demand for steel products in the off-season is unstable, the transaction of low-priced resources is acceptable, and the transaction of high-priced resources is difficult. At the same time, under the low profit status of steel mills, the output fluctuations are not large, and the inventory of raw materials and fuels remains low. Considering the tight supply of coking coal in some regions, the recent coking coal and coke markets have been operating relatively strongly, and the overall cost of steel has risen.

In short, under the high temperature and rainy off-season, the steel market maintains a weak balance between supply and demand, and there is little pressure on inventory accumulation. Driven by policies and costs, confidence in the steel market has recovered, and short-term steel prices may fluctuate slightly.

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Quality Control of HUNGTHAI Color Coated Sheet Production Process

It is very important to ensure product quality for us. HUNGTHAI METAL has very strict quality inspection requirements and has been working hard to provide customers with perfect steel coils.

  1. Environmental Control
    As a high value-added product with both mechanical strength and decorative properties, the color-coated sheet has strict requirements on its surface. During production, a tiny dust or particle adheres to the surface or enters the paint, which will cause irreversible surface defects. Therefore, The entire coating production line should be absolutely clean, the ground should be brushed with dust-proof paint, the coating room should be managed in a closed manner, and the operators should strictly abide by the operating procedures.
  2. Substrate selection
    According to the purpose of the color-coated sheet, the color-coated substrate can be selected from cold-rolled sheet, electro-galvanized sheet, hot-dip galvanized sheet and galvanized aluminum alloy sheet, etc. Generally speaking, the dimensional accuracy and layout of color graphics products are completely determined by the substrate, and the unevenness cannot be changed during the production process, so the substrate needs to have good dimensional accuracy, and the strip edge should be free of burrs, jagged edges, and so on.
    It is required that the hot-dip galvanized strip needs to be small spangle or zero spangle, the surface is oiled and not passivated, and there should be no ungalvanized, zinc layer falling off, cracks, etc., and no blackboard and white rust will be produced during storage, otherwise it will cause the surface Defects will also reduce the adhesion of the coating and affect the performance of the color-coated board.
  3. Control of preprocessing
    The pretreatment includes cleaning and chemical treatment of the conversion layer. The purpose of the pretreatment is to increase the bonding strength of the coating and the substrate and increase the function of the coating. Therefore, the quality of the pretreatment directly affects the quality of the coating.
  4. Coating Control
    First of all, the surface of the roll is good, and secondly, it is mainly necessary to control the thickness and uniformity of the coating.
  5. Control of coating curing
    In order to completely volatilize the volume contained in the wet coating, the curing time, strip heating curve and strip PMT are mainly controlled during curing.

In the production process of color-coated sheets, from the input of raw materials to the packaging of products, corresponding inspections, measurements, tests and inspections must be carried out. So as to ensure that the entire process is completed according to the set process parameters.

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